The Impact of the US-China Trade Conflict on Chinas Metal Market

Abstract

The US-China trade war began in March 2018. The United States imposed trade sanctions on China such as increasing tariffs on imported goods, including tariffs of 25% on imported steel and 10% on aluminum. As an important resource for bilateral import and export between China and the United States, metal products are greatly affected by the trade war, which has caused severe fluctuations in the Chinese metal market. This article selects the Chinese metal market prices from September 30, 2011, to December 2019, establishes an ARIMA model to simulate and analyze the data, predicts future trends, and finally finds that the trade war exerts adverse effects on the metal product market in China, driving down the market and making it more difficult for companies to survive. The research suggests that policy makers should pay more attention to relevant companies, adopt a more active stance to resolve the trade war, and restore market stability.