Abstract

This paper focuses on the impact of the Uruguay Round (UR) implementation on world agriculture using a multi-regional general equilibrium model and the mapping function of the Geographic Information System (GIS). The results of this study show that the Uruguay Round has had a negative impact on world agriculture in the light of total food products and food distribution. For commodities such as grains, while grain production rises in exporting countries, the effect is not sufficient to cover the fall in production in importing countries. In particular, the impact is serious on food security in importing countries of agricultural products. The negative impact is almost concentrated in importing countries, particularly Japan, the European Union (EU) and South Korea. As is clearly visible on the maps produced by the GIS function, the real state of world agriculture as well as the results evaluated by this Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model has changed negatively in major importing countries and particularly the Least Developed Countries (LDCs), Sub-Saharan Africa following the Uruguay Round.

Highlights

  • The Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture represents a fundamental change in the way agriculture is treated under the rules governing trade among World Trade Organization (WTO) member countries

  • While there is a production increase in exporting countries, the decrease in importing countries induces an additive imbalance of world agricultural production

  • As the world economy becomes more integrated after the UR, we use the multi-sector, multiregional CGE model to analyze the impact of the UR on world agriculture

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Summary

Introduction

The Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture represents a fundamental change in the way agriculture is treated under the rules governing trade among World Trade Organization (WTO) member countries. Prior to the Uruguay Round, General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) rules on trade contained various exceptions in many aspects of agricultural products. These studies focused on aggregate aspects such as welfare and GDP effects of the Uruguay Round. Food insecurity is still a major problem in food importing countries, in Net Food Importing Developing Countries (NFIDCs) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) This is because unstable world food price, terms of trade and concentration of agricultural markets by some multinational companies have weakened the world food security. We can see the quantitative results of this study with (on) the map produced by the GIS function as follows: (1) changes in the level of agricultural production; (2) changes in world agricultural trade and in exporting and importing countries; and (3) changes in food security

The Model and Data
Major Results
Major Changes in Real World Agriculture
Summary and Conclusions
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