The impact of the russian-ukrainian war on economic processes in russia: analysis and forecasting

Abstract

In this article, the author examines the impact of the war in Ukraine on the Russian economy, analyzes and forecasts some of the main factors. The relevance of the issue under consideration is due to the fact that the economic situation in Russia directly affects Russia's ability to continue the war in Ukraine. Therefore, the purpose of the article is to analyze and forecast the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on economic processes in Russia. Despite the fact that officialstatistics are mostly classified or distorted by Rosstat, the analysis shows that the economic situation in Russia is getting worse. For the past six years, the Russian economy has been experiencing strong inflation, and in the current environment, inflationary processes have intensified significantly. Eventually, the Kremlin will face a problem: either to continue fighting in Ukraine, or to boost the economy, or to move to a large-scale money issue, which will lead to even higher prices. The National Welfare Fund has shrunk by almost a third and continues to shrink. That is, without additional investments of foreign capital, Russia will not be able to raise the economy and conduct military operations.The key policy rate was forecasted using neural networks based on the method of group consideration of arguments using the GMDH Shell program. The forecast shows that in 2023 the key policy rate may increase to 23%.The article shows how the national welfare fund of Russia has been reduced, and the federal budget expenditures are analyzed. The author gives the estimated expenditures of the Russian Federation for the first year of the war and the budget deficit. According to experts' estimates, an approximate figure of the need for funds to support combat operations in the current conditions is provided. The materials of the article are of practical value for analysts, economists and anyone who studies the Russian-Ukrainian war from the point of view of the economic component.