The impact of the Russian import ban on EU agrarian exports

Abstract

The main goal of the paper is to evaluate the impact of the Russian import ban on the development of agricultural exports from EU member states. The study is based on a time-series analysis of empirical statistical indicators. The analysed period is between 2009 and 2019. The source of data for individual analyses is UN Comtrade (2021). The evaluation of export performance is extended by hierarchical cluster analysis. The study quantifies the effects of the import ban on the EU and individual member states through two scenarios. Scenario 1 is based on the cumulative loss of the value of exports. Scenario 2 assumes a continuous development of the value of agricultural exports. Based on the results, it is possible to confirm that the application of the Russian food import ban had a significant impact on EU countries. The impact of sanctions varies across EU countries. Four specific clusters could be identified in the period under investigation. In the period after the ban, the distribution of individual countries among individual clusters changed significantly. The applied ban could be understood not only as an attempt at counter-sanctions. Import restrictions also aim to reduce Russia's dependence on food imports and promote national food security.