THE IMPACT OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ON IDX COMPOSITE PREDICTIONS USING LONG SHORT TERM MEMORY

Abstract

An analysis of the performance of Indonesia's capital market, or Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), shows significant growth in recent years, with market capitalization increasing dramatically from IDR 679.95 trillion in 2004 to IDR 11,674.06 trillion by 2023. The IDX plays an important role in the Indonesian economy by facilitating capital formation and providing opportunities for investors to diversify their portfolios. However, the capital market is vulnerable to political events, such as presidential elections, which can affect national stability and economic performance. An analysis of the stock index performance before the presidential election showed a significant bullish trend. Still, given the considerable impact of political events, such as presidential elections, on financial markets, this study aims to analyze and forecast the performance of the IDX Composite by examining historical data from past election years, we provide insights and predictions in highlighting how the LSTM model accommodates these political factors in its forecasts. IDX Composite closing price forecasting was conducted using the bidirectional LSTM model to anticipate the impact. The analysis results show that this model can predict the weekly closing price of the IDX Composite with an error of 1.04%, with estimated stock price fluctuations in the next 8 weeks in the range of 6619.755 to 6812.722