The impact of the post-Brexit migration system on the UK labour market

Abstract

ABSTRACT The end of free movement and the introduction of the post-Brexit migration system represent a major structural change to the UK labour market. We provide a descriptive assessment of the impact on a sectoral basis. We examine how overall labour force growth has differed between sectors, both overall and in terms of the extent to which this growth was driven by migrant workers, both from the EU and from outside the EU, prior to the pandemic. We construct counterfactuals, which we contrast with observed outturns, as well as with data on visas issued by sector. Our analysis suggests that, although migration overall is currently running at least at pre-pandemic levels, the post-Brexit migration system has produced, as designed, a clear break with pre-Brexit trends, reducing labour supply for some sectors. There remains a substantial ‘shortfall’ in migration for work. However, these impacts differ very considerably between sectors. In lower-skilled sectors, work-related migration under free movement does not appear to have been replaced by additional visa issuance under the new system. Meanwhile, in higher skilled sectors, visa issuance has increased, and does appear to be consistent with levels of migration that are broadly in line with pre-pandemic, pre-Brexit trend.