Abstract

Abstract Safety systems are often characterized by substantial redundancy and diversification in safety critical components. In principle, such redundancy and diversification can bring benefits when compared to single-component systems. However, it has also been recognized that the evaluation of these benefits should take into account that redundancies cannot be founded, in practice, on the assumption of complete independence, so that the resulting risk profile is strongly dominated by dependent failures. It is therefore mandatory that the effects of common cause failures be estimated in any probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). Recently, in the Hughes model for hardware failures and in the Eckhardt and Lee models for software failures, it was proposed that the stressfulness of the operating environment affects the probability that a particular type of component will fail. Thus, dependence of component failure behaviors can arise indirectly through the variability of the environment which can directly affect the success of a redundant configuration. In this paper we investigate the impact of indirect component dependence by means of the introduction of a probability distribution which describes the variability of the environment. We show that the variance of the distribution of the number, or times, of system failures can give an indication of the presence of the environment. Further, the impact of the environment is shown to affect the reliability and the design of redundant configurations.

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