The impact of the investment expectation gap on households’ risky financial asset investment

Abstract

Rational household asset allocation is crucial for the accumulation of household wealth. However, there is still a widespread phenomenon of limited participation among households. This paper aims to explore the impact of the investment expectation gap on households’ risky financial asset investment. Utilizing data from the China Household Finance Survey 2019, this paper systematically investigates the role of the investment expectation gap in risky financial asset investment through the Probit and Tobit models. The study reveals that the investment expectation gap has a significant negative impact on the investment probability (Average Marginal Effect, –0.118, p < 0.01) and holding proportion (β, –0.082, p < 0.01) of household investment in risky financial assets. This conclusion remains robust after conducting robustness tests by replacing the explanatory variable and performing subsample tests and endogenous treatment. The analysis of transmission mechanisms revealed that an expanding of the investment expectation gap would concurrently result in a decline in households’ assessment of stock’s profitability (Average Marginal Effect, –0.080, p < 0.01), the satisfaction with current asset allocation (β, –0.167, p < 0.05), and the subjective well-being of household members (β, –0.289, p < 0.01). Furthermore, the investment expectation gap not only hampers household investment in risky financial asset, but also diminish the household savings rate (β, –0.055, p < 0.01). This study demonstrates that helping households form reasonable expectations for risky financial assets investment returns will contribute to diversifying household asset allocation and enhancing satisfaction with investment decisions. AcknowledgmentThis study is funded by the Chongqing Social Science Planning Fund, grant number (2021BS052).