THE IMPACT OF THE INCREASE IN THE VOLUME OF FREIGHT TURNOVER ON THE RAILWAYS ON EXPORTS

Abstract

Purpose: This study aims to investigate the intricate relationship between the volume of exports (Y) and freight turnover on railways (X) through a paired linear regression model. The purpose is to discern the quantitative impact of railway freight turnover on a nation's export volumes and offer insights for policymakers and stakeholders in the transportation and trade sectors. Design/Methodology/Approach: A quantitative research design is employed, utilizing historical data spanning from 2000 to 2022. The chosen methodology involves the estimation of a paired linear regression model using the method of least squares. Statistical significance is tested through the coefficient of determination, Fisher's F-test, and an examination of heteroskedasticity. Elasticity analysis, rank correlation, and graphical assessments of residuals provide a comprehensive understanding of the relationship. Findings: The research reveals a strong and statistically significant positive correlation (r = 0.92) between export volumes and railway freight turnover. The regression model, validated through multiple tests, explains 84.72% of the variability in export volumes. Economic interpretation indicates that a one-unit increase in railway freight turnover leads to a substantial average increase of 1627720.728 units in export volumes. The absence of heteroskedasticity reinforces the robustness of the model.