The Impact of the Green Economy on Carbon Emission Intensity: Comparisons, Challenges, and Mitigating Strategies

Abstract

Global warming, driven primarily by the substantial discharge of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, presents a progressively intensifying concern. To curtail these emissions, the international community is persistently exerting efforts. Traditional economic paradigms have contributed to resource exhaustion and severe pollution, as well as other issues. The green economy, characterized by “eco-friendly”, “low carbon”, and “intensive development” principles, proposes strategies to counter global warming. The current study considers 30 Chinese provinces and cities, assessing coal, coke, and diesel consumption data from 2004 to 2020. Using the carbon emission factor method to quantify carbon emissions, spatial autocorrelation of emissions across various regions is evaluated by employing Moran’s I. The Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) of carbon emissions and green economy is formulated to scrutinize the contributing factors to carbon emissions, focusing on spatial–temporal evolution and spatial heterogeneity. According to the analysis results, the corresponding suggestions are put forward. This also facilitates analysis of the green economy’s impact on China’s carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets. The findings suggest the following: (1) Over the study period, China’s aggregate carbon emissions exhibited an upward trend, although the growth rate notably decelerated after 2011, and significant spatial clustering of carbon emissions was discerned across the regions. (2) Overall, both economic and social development markedly augmented carbon emission intensity. (3) Spatially, the green economy’s effect on carbon emissions demonstrated significant spatial differentiation. By constructing a GTWR model of the green economy–carbon emission relationship, this study provides a trajectory for regional green sustainability and offers empirical guidance for developing countries grappling with global warming.