The impact of the first wave of COVID-19 on students’ attainment, analysed by IRT modelling method

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Universities around the world were closed for several months to slow down the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. During this crisis, a tremendous amount of effort was made to use online education to support the teaching and learning process. The COVID-19 pandemic gave us a profound insight into how online education can radically affect students and how students adapt to new challenges. The question is how switching to online education affected dropout? This study shows the results of a research project clarifying the impact of the transition to online courses on dropouts. The data analysed are from a large public university in Europe where online education was introduced in March 2020. This study compares the academic progress of students newly enroled in 2018 and 2019 using IRT modelling. The results show that (1) this period did not contribute significantly to the increase in dropout, and we managed to retain our students.(2) Subjects became more achievable during online education, and students with less ability were also able to pass their exams. (3) Students who participated in online education reported lower average grade points than those who participated in on-campus education. Consequently, on-campus students could win better scholarships because of better grades than students who participated in online education. Analysing students’ results could help (1) resolve management issues regarding scholarship problems and (2) administrators develop programmes to increase retention in online education.