The Impact of the First Professional Police Forces on Crime

Anna Bindler,Randi Hjalmarsson

doi:10.1093/jeea/jvab011

Abstract

Abstract This paper evaluates the effect on crime of creating a fundamental modern-day institution: centralized professional police forces tasked with preventing crime. We study the 1829 formation of the London Metropolitan Police—the first professional force worldwide. Using newly digitized and geocoded crime and police data together with difference-in-differences and pre–post designs, we find evidence of a significant reduction in violent crimes (despite the possibility of offsetting increases in clearance and reporting rates). In contrast, a reduction in property crime is not visible.

Highlights

An extensive empirical literature testing one of the core components of Becker’s (1968) economic model of crime – the role played by the probability of apprehension – has resulted in a general “consensus that increases in police manpower reduce crime” (Chalfin and McCrary, 2017).1 Most of this existing literature is based on expansions to the size of an existing police force, thereby estimating the marginal effect of an additional officer to an already established force
Though at least partially treated, we do not find any effects of the Met on crime in the uncertainty area; this could imply that there was no change in crime levels in the uncertainty area
Our pre-post analysis of the daily police report data supports these interpretations of the Old Bailey results: A significant reduction in violent crimes, including robbery, is observed, while evidence of off-setting channels are seen for property crime: a reduction in uncleared crimes but increase in cleared crimes

Summary

Introduction

An extensive empirical literature testing one of the core components of Becker’s (1968) economic model of crime – the role played by the probability of apprehension – has resulted in a general “consensus that increases in police manpower reduce crime” (Chalfin and McCrary, 2017). Most of this existing literature is based on (often temporary) expansions to the size of an existing police force, thereby estimating the marginal effect of an additional officer to an already established force. An extensive empirical literature testing one of the core components of Becker’s (1968) economic model of crime – the role played by the probability of apprehension – has resulted in a general “consensus that increases in police manpower reduce crime” (Chalfin and McCrary, 2017).1 Most of this existing literature is based on (often temporary) expansions to the size of an existing police force, thereby estimating the marginal effect of an additional officer to an already established force. Cities across the United States and around the world modelled their own police departments on the Met and, most prominently, adopted its innovative emphasis on crime prevention or deterrence.2 These newly created institutions, which still exist today, are a fundamental component of the contemporary criminal justice system Cities across the United States and around the world modelled their own police departments on the Met and, most prominently, adopted its innovative emphasis on crime prevention or deterrence. These newly created institutions, which still exist today, are a fundamental component of the contemporary criminal justice system

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Discussion

Conclusion