The impact of the evolution of the iron raw material trade pattern on the national economy: The B&R perspective

Abstract

Iron plays a pivotal part in the economic development of the countries along the Belt and Road (B&R countries), most of which are developing countries. With the continuous deepening of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the iron trade pattern has changed, which has had diverse impacts on economic development. Therefore, from the perspective of the iron industry chain, we investigate the impact of the evolution of the iron raw material (IRM) trade pattern on the national economic development of the B&R countries based on the complex network and penal regression method. The major completions are as follows: (1) The import of IRM has a significant promoting effect on the national economy; (2) After the BRI proposal, the structure of iron products exported by B&R countries has been upgraded, and the dependence of the economy on IRM export has decreased, which is conducive to economic development; (3) The trade of IRM among B&R countries has become more diversified, resulting in a lack of significant correlation between betweenness centrality and the national economy.