Abstract
Analyzing the impact of El Nilo Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the number of tourists is essential in realizing the sustainable development of natural scenic spots. From the current research results, research on the effects of ENSO on tourism focuses on the impact of the formation of the natural environment. However, there is a lack of ENSO-related research on the number of people arriving at natural attractions. This paper considers the adjustment effects of personal disposable income, per capita GDP, and population size and constructs a new framework of ENSO’s influence on tourism. This paper builds a system GMM (Gaussian Mixture Model) and analyzes the impact of ENSO on tourist flow by using Google Trend data (big data technology) to obtain annual passenger flow data of 48 natural scenic spots in the United States (mainly national parks and national forests). The empirical results show that the increase in ENSO has led to a significant decrease in visitors to natural attractions in the United States. Moreover, the increase in personal disposable income, per capita GDP, and population size can weaken the relationship between ENSO and the number of tourists. This research expands and enriches the theoretical perspective of ENSO and outdoor tourism.
Highlights
The tourism industry is exceptionally dependent on climatic conditions [1]
The primary purpose of this paper is to study the impact of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the number of people arriving at natural attractions, taking into account per capita gross domestic product (GDP), per capita disposable income, and population adjustment
The models (5)–(7) in Table 4 all show that the lagging period between the core explanatory variable and the explained variable is significantly negative at a confidence level of 1%, indicating that the enhancement of ENSO in the current period will shrink in the year
Summary
The tourism industry is exceptionally dependent on climatic conditions [1]. climate change can influence tourists’ participation in various tourist destination activities through promotion and suppression [2]. Climate change has many manifestations, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Interdecadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic. ENSO is the most important mode of interannual changes in global climate. It is a sea-atmosphere coupling phenomenon that changes the weather by influencing temperature and rainfall patterns [3,4,5]. ENSO will have an impact on the tourism industry [6]. The specific impact models are as follows: (1) Pulling factors: When the weather conditions related to ENSO show suitable temperature and good rainfall patterns, it can make the desired destination have pleasant weather conditions, and to an increase in the number of visitors to attractions
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