The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on suicide rates in Hungary: an interrupted time-series analysis

Abstract

From 2010 to 2019, suicide mortality fell steadily and substantially in Hungary: the declining trend remained stable, and the suicide rate decreased by more than one-third which was remarkable even from an international perspective. However, despite the declining trend, regional inequalities have always characterised the distribution of suicide mortality in Hungary. Following these favourable trends, COVID-19 appeared in Hungary on the 4th of March 2020 which might lead to an increase in suicides. We aimed to investigate this hypothesis in Hungary by gender, age, educational attainment, and region, as well. To test whether the pandemic changed the declining trend of Hungarian suicide rates, the observed number of suicides during March-December 2020 (pre-vaccination period) was compared with the expected numbers (without the appearance of COVID-19). An interrupted time-series analysis was conducted by negative binomial regression using monthly data from January 2010 to February 2020 (pre-pandemic period). Suicide mortality increased significantly compared to the trend during the pre-pandemic period: overall (by 16.7%), among males (18.5%), in the age group 35-49years (32.8%), and among vocational school graduates (26.1%). Additionally, significant growths in suicide rates were detected in the two regions (Central Hungary and Central Transdanubia) with the lowest COVID mortality rates (by 27.3% and 22.2%, respectively). Our study revealed reversed trend in suicide mortality during the pre-vaccination period compared to the pre-pandemic period in Hungary. There were significant differences in the pattern of suicide rates by gender, age group, educational attainment, and region during the pre-vaccination period in Hungary, which might be attributed to the socio-economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings could prove useful in preventive strategies as the identification of groups at higher risk may be important for suicide prevention; however, further investigations are needed to explore the reasons.