Abstract

ABSTRACT This paper investigates trends in intangibles investment since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom. Responses from an online survey show that investment in R&D has dropped substantially for many firms but that over 40% of firms increased their ICT investment, which is likely to reflect the need to facilitate remote working and customer engagement. Industry is a major predictor of the change in intangibles investment. This is consistent with expectations in light of the different effect that measures to contain the pandemic have had across industries.

Highlights

  • The COVID-19 pandemic has had profound effects on the world economy (International Monetary Fund 2021)

  • Since their wages account for a high proportion of research and development (R&D) investment, this suggests that R&D investment may be less respon­ sive to the business cycle (Hall and Lerner 2010)

  • Strong evidence that R&D investment has decreased during the pandemic, which is likely to have serious repercussions for productivity growth in the medium to longer-term

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Summary

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic has had profound effects on the world economy (International Monetary Fund 2021). The effect of recessions on intangibles invest­ ment is theoretically ambiguous. The knowledge embedded in the human capital of R&D workers and the length of time of R&D pro­ jects creates a disincentive for firms to make R&D workers redundant. Since their wages account for a high proportion of R&D investment, this suggests that R&D investment may be less respon­ sive to the business cycle (Hall and Lerner 2010). The empirical evidence is generally supportive of a pro-cyclical relationship (Barlevy 2007; Filippetti and Archibugi 2011; Fabrizio and Tsolmon 2013) and cross-country data shows that intangibles investment declined more than tangibles invest­ ment in Europe during the Great Recession (Roth 2020). Since the recession caused by COVID-19 is unique, both in its origins and policy response from government, the conclusions from previous studies may not apply

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