The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on new and old kinetic energy of industry from the perspective of high-frequency electricity consumption: Evidence from Henan Province

Abstract

With the normalization of the epidemic situation, China’s economy often disturbed by the pandemic. Both the old and new growth drivers have been affected by the epidemic, and their development trend has dropped significantly. However, the new growth drivers have shown good capacity for industrial recovery, driving the rapid and steady growth of the economy. Therefore, an effective, intelligent, precise, and adaptable monitoring method to new and old industry kinetic energy should be taken, which not only improve the level of macroeconomic analysis, but also supply solid support for enterprises and governments to make reasonable decisions. This research uses weekly electricity consumption statistics to monitor the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on new and old kinetic energy of industry in Henan Province in 2020. To make the statistics of different weeks comparable, this research uses exponential smoothing and Multiple-seasonal decomposition of time series by locally weighted scatterplot smoothing (MSTL) to correct and decompose the statistics. The new kinetic energy index, the old kinetic energy index and the industry kinetic energy index of major industries are calculated based on the corrected and decomposed statistics. The results show that the new kinetic energy has rapidly adjusted the industry development model based on its own industry characteristics to promote economic recovery.