Abstract

We examine the impact of terrorism on social capital by exploiting variation in the 2014 European Social Survey administration dates coupled with the 2015 Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris, France. Using the difference-in-differences estimator, we find that the attack had a positive, causal impact on the overall level of social capital among French respondents. Further, the effect seems to be driven by an increase in institutional and interpersonal trust, as well as by engagement in social networks. This rise in social capital peaks in the immediate aftermath of the terrorist attack but subsequently decays to pre-attack levels within approximately one month.

Highlights

  • We examine the impact of terrorism on social capital by exploiting variation in the 2014 European Social Survey administration dates coupled with the 2015 Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris, France

  • We utilize the Charlie Hebdo attack, coupled with the staggered and random nature that respondents were interviewed for the 2014 wave of the European Social Survey, as a means of identifying the impact of terrorism on a country’s level of social capital

  • Our results demonstrate that terrorism has a significant positive and causal effect on social capital

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Summary

Introduction

Social scientists frequently demonstrate the importance of social capital – or the “features of social organizations, such as trust, norms, and [social] networks” – in promoting efficient political institutions as well as a country’s overall level of economic success (Putnam et al 1993 p. 167). Of late, and motivated by a sharp, ninefold increase in the number of terrorist-related events over the last two decades, new attempts have been made to quantify the role of terrorism in explaining a country’s level of social capital (Chanley 2002; Putnam 2002; Collins 2004; Gross et al 2004; Paxton 2005; Huddy and Feldman 2006; Bali 2007; Gassebner et al 2008; Sander and Putnam 2010; Sinclair and LoCiero 2010; Blomberg et al 2011; Arvanitidis et al 2016). Studies that investigate the macroeconomic impacts of terrorism find that the costs in terms of GDP, consumption, and economic growth are considerable, especially in countries with repeated and chronic exposure to terrorism (Abadie and Gardeazabal 2003; Blomberg et al 2004; Eckstein and Tsiddon 2004) In addition to these macroeconomic and health implications, it has been argued that terrorist attacks may have profound impacts on a country’s level of social capital. We find that the 2015 Charlie Hebdo terrorist attack led to a significant increase in social capital immediately following the incident inducing a “rally effect” amongst the impacted populace.

Literature Review
Data Description
Data Visualization and Pre-Trends
Baseline Econometric Model
Temporal Dynamics
Results
Baseline Results
Heterogeneity Analysis
Conclusion
Additional Heterogeneity Analyses
Threats to Identification and Robustness
Additional Robustness Checks
Cluster-Robust Standard Errors
Re-scaled Coefficient Estimates of Charlie Hebdo
Placebo Test - Timing of Event
Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Approach
External Validity and Extensions
December 2016 Berlin Christmas Attack
Global Terrorism Analysis
Attitudes towards Immigrants as an Outcome
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