The Impact of Term Limits on Legislative Behavior: An Examination of a Transitional Legislature

Abstract

Twenty-two states have established state legislative term limits since 1990 and several others are considering similar action. Legislative term limits, intended to force a continuous turnover in a legislature's membership, can produce a number of consequences seldom considered in the voluminous rhetorical literature on the subject. Several unanticipated ramifications have occurred in California's political system, for instance, since its adoption of term limits. California's experience suggests that term limits can influence legislators' early retirement rates, as well as the incidence of special elections, and can also produce alternative legislator career paths.While there is an abundance of conflicting rhetoric surrounding the issue, there is a paucity of empirical research to support the various contentions. Term limit advocates use only theoretical arguments to support their claims that restricting tenure of office makes legislators more sensitive to constituent desires and thus more reflective of public opinion (Jacob 1994). Historical references, but no empirical evidence, serve term limit proponents who suggest that limited incumbent time in office makes legislative bodies more deliberative (Will 1994). Term limit opponents similarly utilize only speculation when arguing that limited tenure of office handicaps effective governing (Cain 1994) and decreases needed policy-making expertise (Eastland 1993; Kesler 1994). None of these claims are supported by reliable, empirically verified data.