The Impact of Subsidies on the Prevalence of Climate-Sensitive Residential Buildings in Malaysia

David Tan,Yi Gong,José Siri

doi:10.3390/su9122300

Abstract

Dependence on air-conditioning (AC) for residential cooling and ventilation is a health and sustainability challenge. In hot temperatures, climate-sensitive buildings (CSB) can complement and/or substitute for AC usage in achieving thermal comfort. Many countries facing such conditions—particularly in tropical climates—are developing quickly, with rising populations and income creating demand for new housing and AC. This presents a window for adoption of CSB but could also result in long term lock-in of AC-dependent buildings. Here, a simple system dynamics model is used to explore the potential and limitations of subsidies to affect futures of housing stock and night-time AC usage in Malaysia. The effectiveness of subsidies in achieving high uptake of CSB and resulting health benefits is highly dependent on homebuyer willingness to pay (WTP). A detailed understanding of WTP in the Malaysian context and factors that can shift WTP is necessary to determine if CSB subsidies can be a good policy mechanism for achieving CSB uptake.

Highlights

Increasing affluence in developing countries located in hot climates is rapidly increasing demand for air-conditioning (AC) and residential AC usage is a major contributor to this trend [1,2]
This paper describes a system dynamics model that explores how consumer willingness to pay (WTP) and housing demand may affect the potential and limitations of subsidies to increase climate sensitive building (CSB) housing stock and the consequent impacts on night-time AC usage in Malaysia
The homebuyer WTP for CSB scenarios shows that WTP for CSB strongly constrains the potential for subsidies to enable and accelerate uptake of residential CSB, altering CSB uptake to a far greater extent than any parameter examined in sensitivity analysis

Summary

Introduction

Increasing affluence in developing countries located in hot climates is rapidly increasing demand for air-conditioning (AC) and residential AC usage is a major contributor to this trend [1,2] This is an obstacle to combating climate change, with AC and associated hydrofluorocarbon emissions poised to become primary drivers of energy demand and climate change respectively [1,3]. AC usage (1) is changing electricity usage patterns [4,5,6], thereby increasing the risk of major power outages, especially during heatwaves [5,7,8,9]; (2) contributes to night-time urban heat island (UHI) intensity, [10,11,12,13,14,15,16], impacting sleep quality and increasing health risks, especially for AC non-users [17,18,19]; and (3) increases the frequency of respiratory illness [20,21,22,23] These local and global impacts point toward a need for alternative cooling solutions. Various strategies might be employed for this, including reducing heat absorption during the day, design that encourages and enables effective natural ventilation and supplemental, non-AC mechanical ventilation available where necessary

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion