The Impact of Strategies on the Vote Share of New Parties

Abstract

Can established parties influence the electoral success of new parties? To answer this research question, the author examined the relationships of 168 new parties in 18 highly developed democracies with their established competitors based on their respective election programmes and election results. His analysis of the textual similarity of these election manifestos shows that established parties can influence their competitors' election results by selectively changing the emphasis of their policies. However, competition among the parties must also be taken into account. This study thus contributes to a better understanding of the dynamics of party competition and the opportunities offered by computer-assisted textual analysis in the social sciences.