The impact of stock market development on economic growth in Turkey: ARDL analysis

Abstract

The stock market has become more significant due to the globalization of financial markets, and there is a widespread perception that it propels economic growth. Nonetheless, some recent research has found that this effect differs throughout countries based on their financial infrastructures and degrees of development. In nations with established financial infrastructure and economic stability, the stock market aids in economic growth; nevertheless, it has no such effect in economies characterized by macroeconomic instability and uncertainty. Based on this, this study used quarterly data from 2006 to 2023 to examine the effects of Turkey's stock market development on economic growth using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method. The results show that while there was a negative and considerable short-term effect, stock market development in Turkey did not have a long-term detrimental impact on economic growth. According to the findings, for Turkey's stock market to positively impact economic growth, the country's financial system has to be modernized.