Abstract
BackgroundTo assess the impact of the social isolation index on the number of infections and deaths by COVID-19 in the state of São Paulo (Brazil).MethodsDaily isolation data, obtained through geolocation information by mobile phone, were evaluated together with the number of daily infections and deaths by COVID-19 in the state of São Paulo. The study was conducted from February 26 to May 19, 2020. The data were modeled through the vector autoregression (VAR) model.ResultsThe isolation index has an effect of approximately 5% in variation in the number of infections, and 7% in the number of deaths. The impulse response function (IRF) caused a drop of 0.15% in the number of new cases/day, and 0.17% in the number of deaths/day following a shock in the isolation index. For both cases, this effect occurred 1 day after the shock and stabilized after 10 periods. An increase of 1% in the isolation index led to a reduction of 6.91% in new cases and 6.90% in the number of deaths. The 30 cumulative day reduction reached 22.72% in terms of transmission and 35.39% for deaths.ConclusionsThe social isolation index is related to deaths and infections from SARS-CoV-2. Although distancing measures are accompanied with impacts on the economy and the emergence of other morbidities, the benefits caused by the reduction in the speed of contagion are significant. The adoption of distancing measures has a substantial impact on the number of infected individuals and deaths by COVID-19.
Highlights
To assess the impact of the social isolation index on the number of infections and deaths by COVID19 in the state of São Paulo (Brazil)
Data collection The social isolation index data used in this study was provided by the In Loco Company for the period between February 26 to May 19, 2020
Model This study aimed to analyze the impact of variation in the social isolation index on the number of cases and deaths due to COVID-19
Summary
To assess the impact of the social isolation index on the number of infections and deaths by COVID19 in the state of São Paulo (Brazil). In March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak a pandemic amid the increasing numbers of cases and deaths. In Brazil, the epidemic was declared a public health emergency on February 3 [25]. Faced with a growing number of infected people, authorities in the country adopted measures to lessen social contact to slow the spread of the virus, such as by temporarily closing schools, shops, restaurants, and bars; prohibiting public events; and promoting or imposing work at home. Law 13.979 gave authorities the power to implement public quarantine measures as well as other actions deemed necessary to control the spread of the virus [5, 8]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
