The Impact of Social Distancing in 2020 on Admission Rates for Exacerbations in Asthma: A Nationwide Cohort Study

Abstract

BackgroundSocial distancing measures introduced during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic have reduced admission rates for various infectious and noninfectious respiratory diseases. We hypothesized that rates of asthma exacerbations would decline following the national lockdown in Denmark.ObjectiveTo determine weekly rates of in- and out-of-hospital asthma exacerbations before and during the social distancing intervention implemented on March 12, 2020.MethodsAll individuals older than 18 years with at least 1 outpatient hospital contact with asthma as the main diagnosis from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2017, were included. Weekly asthma exacerbation rates from January 1, 2018, to May 22, 2020, were calculated. An interrupted time-series model with the lockdown on March 12, 2020, as the point of interruption was used.ResultsA total of 38,225 patients with asthma were identified. The interrupted time-series model showed no immediate fall in exacerbation rates during the first week after March 12, 2020. However, there was a significant decline in weekly exacerbation rates in the following 10 weeks (change in trend for exacerbations requiring hospitalization: −0.75 [95% CI, −1.39 to −0.12]; P < .02 and in all asthma exacerbations: −12.2 [95% CI, −19.1 to −5.4; P < .001), amounting to a reduction of approximately 1 and 16.5 exacerbations per year per 100 patients in the cohort, respectively.ConclusionsThe introduction of the social distancing measures in Denmark did not lead to an immediate reduction in asthma exacerbation rates; however, a gradual decline in exacerbation rates during the following 10-week period was observed.