The Impact of Six Per cent Inflation on M3 and Credit on GDP

Abstract

This chapter explores the non-linear effects of positive M3 money supply and credit growth shocks on GDP growth and whether the inflation regimes constrain the effects. The chapter also examined the role of government spending as a transmitter of finance shocks to GDP growth and whether the shock effects are impacted by inflation regimes. Evidence shows that positive effect is much larger when inflation is below 4.5 per cent than when inflation is just below or equal to 6 per cent. In contrast, the positive credit and M3 growth shocks exert a negative effect on GDP growth when inflation exceeds 6 per cent, and the effect becomes much more negative when inflation exceeds 6.5 per cent. Government spending amplify the positive effects of finance shocks on GDP when inflation is below the 6 per cent threshold. In contrast, government spending worsens the decline in GDP growth to positive finance shocks when inflation exceeds the 6 per cent threshold.