The impact of short-term exposure to meteorological factors on the risk of death from hypertension and its major complications: a time series analysis based on Hefei, China.

Abstract

This study aimed to reveal the short-term impact of meteorological factors on the mortality risk in hypertensive patients, providing a scientific foundation for formulating pertinent prevention and control policies. In this research, meteorological factor data and daily death data of hypertensive patients in Hefei City from 2015 to 2018 were integrated. Time series analysis was performed using distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and generalized additive model (GAM). Furthermore, we conducted stratified analysis based on gender and age. Relative risk (RR) combined with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was used to represent the mortality risk of single day and cumulative day in hypertensive patients. Single-day lag results indicated that high daily mean temperature (T mean) (75th percentile, 24.9°C) and low diurnal temperature range (DTR) (25th percentile, 4.20°C) levels were identified as risk factors for death in hypertensive patients (maximum effective RR values were 1.144 and 1.122, respectively). Extremely high levels of relative humidity (RH) (95th percentile, 94.29%) reduced the risk of death (RR value was 0.893). The stratified results showed that the elderly and female populations are more susceptible to low DTR levels, whereas extremely high levels of RH have a more significant protective effect on both populations. Overall, we found that exposure to low DTR and high T mean environments increases the risk of death for hypertensive patients, while exposure to extremely high RH environments significantly reduces the risk of death for hypertensive patients. These findings contribute valuable insights for shaping targeted prevention and control strategies.