Abstract
Abstract. Scenarios for future shipping emissions in the North Sea have been developed in the framework of the Clean North Sea Shipping project. The effects of changing NOx and SO2 emissions were investigated with the CMAQ chemistry transport model for the year 2030 in the North Sea area. It has been found that, compared to today, the contribution of shipping to the NO2 and O3 concentrations will increase due to the expected enhanced traffic by more than 20 and 5 %, respectively, by 2030 if no regulation for further emission reductions is implemented in the North Sea area. PM2.5 will decrease slightly because the sulfur contents in ship fuels will be reduced as international regulations foresee. The effects differ largely between regions, seasons and date of the implementation of stricter regulations for NOx emissions from newly built ships.
Highlights
Shipping is an important contributor to air pollution in coastal areas
PM2.5 will decrease slightly because the sulfur contents in ship fuels will be reduced as international regulations foresee
– Scenario emission control areas (ECAs) opt This is based on scenario ECA selective catalytic reduction (SCR), but it assumes that the strict rules for NOx emissions for newly built ships will apply to older ships in 2030
Summary
Shipping is an important contributor to air pollution in coastal areas. More than 90 % of global trade is done with ships. NOx, SO2 and PM emissions are comparably high because of less strict regulations for the emissions of these pollutants from ships This problem was already recognised years ago, leading to stricter regulations in some areas, the so-called emission control areas (ECAs). The North Sea and the Baltic Sea are under discussion to become such an ECA for NOx. Tier III rules will only be valid for ships built after the designation date (International Maritime Organization, Marine Environment Protection Committee, 2014). In order to estimate the effect of these technologies and of legislation on NOx and SO2 emissions from ships, emission scenarios were developed for the year 2030 These scenarios consider the same development of the world fleet but different developments in legislation and the use of alternative fuels. CMAQ calculates transport and transformation of the emitted pollutants and yields concentration maps that illustrate the impact of shipping emissions on the air quality in the North Sea region
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