The impact of Russo-Ukrainian war, COVID-19, and oil prices on global food security

Abstract

ContextLight of recent global upheavals, including volatile oil prices, the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, and the COVID-19 pandemic this study delves into their profound impact on the import and export dynamics of global foodstuffs. With rising staple food prices reminiscent of the 2010–2011 global food crisis, understanding these shifts comprehensively is imperative. ObjectiveOur objective is to evaluate this impact by examining six independent variables (year, month, Brent crude oil, COVID-19, the Russo-Ukrainian conflict) alongside six food indicators as dependent variables. Employing Pearson's correlation, linear regression, and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving averages (SARIMA), we scrutinize intricate relationships among these variables. Results and conclusionsOur findings reveal varying degrees of association, notably highlighting a robust correlation between Brent crude oil and food indicators. Linear regression analysis suggests a positive influence of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, Brent oil on food price indices, and COVID-19. Furthermore, integrating SARIMA enhances predictive accuracy, offering insights into future projections. SignificanceFinally, this research has a significant role in providing a valuable analysis into the intricate dynamics of global food pricing, informing decision-making amidst global challenges and bridging critical gaps in prior research on forecasting food price indices.