The impact of risk perception on earthquake preparedness: An empirical study from Rawalakot, Pakistan

Abstract

Pakistan is located in one of the most earthquake-prone regions of the world. The 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquake (Mw 7.6) resulted in massive destruction of the infrastructural facilities and significant social losses. In order to develop effective strategies to reduce the social, environmental, and economic losses from future destructive earthquakes, it is important to assess the level of earthquake preparedness in this region. This study evaluates potential association between perceived risk and earthquake preparedness at the household level in urban, peri-urban, and rural areas of Rawalakot – a city located in the Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) region. Based on the Yamane method, 400 samples from urban, peri-urban, and rural study areas were collected using the random sampling technique. Primary data was collected from face-to-face interviews using structured questionnaires. An index-based approach was used to determine risk perception and preparedness indices. The overall level of risk perception and its important dimensions (fear, awareness, trust, and attitude) were quantified using a set of appropriate indicators. Linear regression model were used to find the significant variance in any relationship between risk perception and preparedness. The results revealed that risk perception is significantly influenced by the fear of future earthquakes, expected breakdown of supplies, and expected damage of the house structures. The study also found that risk perception and its various dimensions may significantly influence earthquake preparedness. The findings of this study can be used by the relevant authorities to devise integrated risk awareness and preparedness programs at the household level.