Abstract
Reservoirs play an important role in responding to natural disasters (such as flood and drought) by controlling the runoff. With the climate changing, the frequency and intensity of flood and drought are likely to increase. Thus, the impact of reservoirs on runoff under climate change needs to be studied to cope with future floods and drought. In this study, the Nierji Reservoir located on the Nenjiang River Basin was chosen to explore the impact. The Nenjiany River Basin is the vital water source in the water resources transfer project in Northeast China. Climate change in Nenjiang River Basin was analyzed using the 1980 to 2013 climate observations. The results show that the temperature of the basin significantly (p < 0.05) increased while the precipitation significantly (p < 0.05) decreased. Based on the result, nine kinds of different climate scenarios were set up. For different climate scenarios, the Hydroinformatic Modeling System (HIMS) model and the HIMS model with the reservoir calculation module were used to simulate runoff during the no reservoir operation period (1980–2000) and reservoir operation period (2007–2013), respectively. The impact of reservoirs on runoff under climate change is studied. Results show that the Nierji Reservoir can effectively relieve the impact of climate change on downstream runoff. When temperature increases or precipitation decreases, there are larger differences in runoff over the non-flood period, especially during periods of no reservoir operation. Reservoir operation under climate change can provide reliability in drought protection.
Highlights
The fifth report (AR5) issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2013 stated that the global surface temperature increased by 0.85 ◦ C from 1880 to 2012 and would increase by 0.3 to 0.7 ◦ C in the 30 years
This study found that after the operation of the Nierji Reservoir, the annual average runoff of downstream stations has a different degree of decline compared with that before the operation of the reservoir (Table 2)
After the operation of the Nierji Reservoir, the annual average runoff of downstream stations has a different degree of decline compared with that before the operation of the reservoir
Summary
The fifth report (AR5) issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2013 stated that the global surface temperature increased by 0.85 ◦ C from 1880 to 2012 and would increase by 0.3 to 0.7 ◦ C in the 30 years. The report points out that human activities are the main cause of climate warming [1,2]. Climate change can lead to changes in global hydrological processes, including melting glaciers, rising sea levels, and deterioration of the living environment [3]. The impact of climate change on water resources is mainly reflected in temperature and precipitation [4]. Precipitation is usually the most important source of water in a river, and it determines the amount of runoff [5]. Lu’s research [6] showed that, on average, about 50% of the annual precipitation in
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