The impact of remittances on Sudan’s economic growth: does the exchange rate matter?

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the presence of the Dutch disease hypothesis through examining the remittance-growth nexus using annual data for Sudan covering the period 1977-2015. The paper seeks to answer the following critical questions: what is the impact of remittance on Sudanese economy? How exchange rate influences the impact of remittance on growth? To what extent the impact of remittance on growth differs between the short and long run.Design/methodology/approachThe paper employs the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) technique because of its several advantages.FindingsThe ARDL results show evidence against the existence of such a hypothesis. More specifically, the results show that over time, due to the structured nature of the economy, remittances may affect economic growth negatively through several mechanisms including the depreciation rather than the appreciation of the exchange rate.Originality/valueAfter 2011 and the secession of South Sudan, Sudan lost more than 80 per cent of foreign exchange revenues which reflected in the sharp gap between the official rate and the parallel exchange rate equal to 150 per cent. To lessening this gap, the attention was given to expatriates to encourage them to transfer their remittances through official channels. Since remittance and exchange rate mechanism may affect growth positively or negatively, no study addressed this possibility. This is the first empirical study in this matter that considers both the temporary and the permanent impacts.