Abstract
Current European policies define targets for future direct emissions of new car sales that foster a fast transition to electric drivetrain technologies. However, these targets do not consider the emissions produced in electricity generation and material production, and therefore fail to incentivise car manufacturers to consider the benefits of vehicle weight reduction. In this paper, we examine the potential benefits of limiting the average weight and altering the material composition of new cars in terms of global greenhouse gas emissions produced during the use phase, electricity generation and material production. We anticipate the emissions savings for the future car fleet in Great Britain until 2050 for various alternative futures, using a dynamic material flow analysis of ferrous metals and aluminium, and considering an evolving demand for car use. The results suggest that fostering vehicle weight reduction could produce greater cumulative emissions savings by 2050 than those obtained by incentivising a fast transition to electric drivetrains, unless there is an extreme decarbonization of the electricity grid. Savings promoted by weight reduction are immediate and do not depend on the pace of decarbonization of the electricity grid. Weight reduction may produce the greatest savings when mild steel in the car body is replaced with high-strength steel.This article is part of the themed issue ‘Material demand reduction’.
Highlights
Over the last few centuries, human progress has been linked to increasing fuel combustion and to the consequent emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs)
In the United Kingdom (UK), transport emissions have increased from 21% in 1990 to 25% of direct combustion emissions in 2013, 94% of which are produced by road transport alone
The world’s most fuel-efficient car to date has an extreme lightweight body of only 29 kg [9], so would policy targets limiting the average weight of cars be able to deliver the same emissions savings as current policies? This paper aims to provide answers to this question, by testing the impact on various limits to the average weight of cars, penetration of alternative drivetrains and behaviour change in the global emissions produced by the car fleet in Great Britain until 2050
Summary
Over the last few centuries, human progress has been linked to increasing fuel combustion and to the consequent emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). These efforts are pertinent for road transport, which alone is responsible for around 24% of combustion emissions, and where there is potential to deliver substantial emissions savings Pursuing these objectives could be facilitated by enhanced knowledge on the evolution of existing car fleets (hereafter defined as fleet dynamics), examining the impact of changing: material composition, weight and drivetrains of new cars, the energy system and consumer behaviour. This paper aims to provide answers to this question, by testing the impact on various limits to the average weight of cars, penetration of alternative drivetrains and behaviour change in the global emissions produced by the car fleet in Great Britain until 2050 This is tested using dynamic material flow analysis to assess the material stock demographics of the fleet and to estimate the required material flows and the global emissions associated with new cars, and fuel consumption required during the use phase of the fleet (§3).
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