The Impact of Redlining on Modern-Day Firearm Injuries: A Nationwide Study of Federal Policy.

Abstract

To evaluate whether exposure to the United States discriminatory housing practice of redlining, which occurred in over 200 cities in the 1930s, is associated with modern-day, community-level incidence of firearm injury. Firearm violence is a public health epidemic within the United States. Federal policies are crucial in both shaping and reducing the risk of firearm violence; identifying policies that might have contributed to risks also offers potential solutions. We analyzed whether 1930s exposure to the discriminatory housing practices that occurred in over 200 US cities was associated with the modern-day, community-level incidence of firearm injury. We performed a nationwide retrospective cohort study between 2014 and 2018. Urban Zip Code Tabulation Areas (ZCTAs) historically exposed to detrimental redlining (grades C and D) were matched to unexposed ZCTAs based on modern-day population-level demographic characteristics (ie, age, Gini index, median income, percentage Black population, and education level). Incidence of firearm injury was derived from the Gun Violence Archive and aggregated to ZCTA level counts. Our primary outcome was the incidence of firearm injury, modeled using zero-inflated negative binomial regression. When controlling for urban firearm risk factors, neighborhoods with detrimental redlining were associated with 2.6 additional firearm incidents annually compared with nonredlined areas with similar modern-day risk factors. Over our study period, this accounts for an additional 23,000 firearm injuries. Historic, discriminatory Federal policies continue to impact modern-day firearm violence. Policies aimed at reversing detrimental redlining may offer an economic means to reduce firearm violence.