The impact of rapid population growth, expanding urbanisation, and other factors on development in sub-Saharan Africa: the contrasting responses of Tanzania and Kenya.

Abstract

When the nations of Sub‐Saharan Africa won independence some twenty years ago, they faced formidable constraints on development which continue to impede their economic and social progress, despite considerable interim achievements. This article discusses five of these constraints‐internal factors based largely on historical circumstances and the physical environment: (1) underdeveloped human resources; (2) military and political conflict; (3) the colonial institutional heritage; (4) climate and geography; and (5) the twin factors of rapid population growth and expanding urbanisation. However, as an urban sociologist, the author will focus on the fifth development constraint and on the contrasting policies Tanzania and Kenya have devised in response to it. These two countries were chosen because while Tanzania is a low‐income Sub‐Saharan African nation, defined by the World Bank as one with a per capita income of $370 or less, and Kenya is a middle‐income Sub‐Saharan African nation with a per capita income exceeding $370, Tanzania and Kenya are similar in total population, being the fourth and fifth most populous nations in Sub‐Saharan Africa (Nigeria ranks first with a population of 82.6 million; Ethiopia, second, with a population of 30.9 million; Zaire, third, with a population of 27.5 million; Tanzania and Sudan essentially tying for fourth place with populations of 18 million and 17.9 million, respectively; and Kenya, fifth, with a population of 15.3 million, its closest competitors being Uganda with a population of 12.8 million and Ghana with a population of 11.3 million). Moreover, Kenya and Tanzania had the same average annual rate of population growth‐3.4 percent‐between 1970 and 1980, and their projected populations for the year 2000 are only 1 million apart – 34 million and 35 million, respectively. Even more relevant to the theme of this article, however, is the fact that by 1980 Tanzania had reached nearly the same level of urbanisation – 12 percent and 15 percent, respectively, as well as nearly the same concentration of urban population in their capital or primate cities—50 percent and 57 percent, respectively (World Bank, 1983).