Abstract
[1] The tidal regime in the Bohai Sea, China, is investigated using observations and an established numerical tidal model. The area has recently experienced rapid coastline changes due to natural developments of the Yellow River delta and large-scale anthropogenic land reclamation. These morphological changes are not reflected in most global bathymetric databases and are thus rarely incorporated into investigations of the Bohai Sea. It is shown that there have indeed been significant changes in the tidal regime in the Bohai Sea over the last 35 years, with M2 amplitudes changing up to 20 cm in some parts. The model captures some of these changes when the appropriate bathymetries are used. Furthermore, the simulations show that the tides in the Bohai Sea have become more sensitive to future sea level rise and the way in which it is implemented in the model (i.e., whether or not flood defenses are included). These sensitivity changes are due to the recent coastal developments.
Highlights
[2] It has been suggested that sea level will rise with 0.18–0.79 m over the present century [Meehl et al, 2007], larger changes cannot be excluded [e.g., Rahmstorf, 2007; Vermeer and Rahmstorf, 2009]
The simulations show that the tides in the Bohai Sea have become more sensitive to future sea level rise and the way in which it is implemented in the model
Global long-term tidegauge data show some changes in the tides with observed sea-level rise (SLR) [Flick et al, 2003; Ray, 2006, 2009; Jay, 2009; Woodworth, 2010], but these changes are poorly captured by global tidal models due to the coarse resolution of the models [Green, 2010; M€uller et al, 2011]
Summary
[2] It has been suggested that sea level will rise with 0.18–0.79 m over the present century [Meehl et al, 2007], larger changes cannot be excluded [e.g., Rahmstorf, 2007; Vermeer and Rahmstorf, 2009]. Global long-term tidegauge data show some changes in the tides with observed sea-level rise (SLR) [Flick et al, 2003; Ray, 2006, 2009; Jay, 2009; Woodworth, 2010], but these changes are poorly captured by global tidal models due to the coarse resolution of the models [Green, 2010; M€uller et al, 2011]. One issue is that even for the same area—the European Shelf—different studies show quantitatively similar but qualitatively very different results [e.g., Pickering et al, 2012, Ward et al, 2012] These discrepancies have been explained by the way SLR is implemented in the models [Pelling et al, 2013, Pelling and Green, 2013]: when vertical walls are introduced at the present day coastline the tides respond differently to an increased sea level compared to when land is allowed to flood and new wet grid cells are formed within the model domain.
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