The Impact of Radar Radial Velocity Data Assimilation Using WRF-3DVAR System with Different Background Error Length Scales on the Forecast of Super Typhoon Lekima (2019)

Abstract

This study explores the impact of assimilating radar radial velocity (RV) on the forecast of Super Typhoon Lekima (2019) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) assimilation system with different background error length scales. The results of two single observation tests show that the smaller background error length scale is able to constrain the spread of radar observation information within a relatively reasonable range compared with the larger length scale. During the five data assimilation cycles, the position and structure of the near-land typhoon are found to be significantly affected by the setting of the background error length scale. With a reduced length scale, the WRF-3DVAR system could effectively assimilate the radar RV to produce more accurate analyses, resulting in an enhanced typhoon vortex with a dynamic and thermal balance. In the forecast fields, the experiment with a smaller length scale not only reduces the averaged track error for the 24-h forecasts to less than 20 km, but it also more accurately captures the evolutions of the typhoon vortex and rainband during typhoon landing. In addition, the spatial distribution and intensity of heavy precipitation are corrected. For the 24-h quantitative precipitation forecasts, the equitable threat scores of the experiment with a reduced length scale are greater than 0.4 for the threshold from 1 to 100 mm and not less than 0.2 until the threshold increases to 240 mm. The enhanced prediction performances are probably due to the improved TC analysis.