The impact of public approval on the use of negativity throughout the electoral cycle

Abstract

The literature has found that politicians who lag behind in public approval ratings during campaigns resort to more negativity. However, the actual impact of approval on the use of negativity during the electoral cycle has yet to be addressed. Furthermore, due to the short-lived nature of campaigns, current studies have been unable to establish a directional causal link between approval ratings and negativity. This article addresses these gaps by: (i) building a theory for understanding the impact of public approval on the use of negativity throughout the electoral cycle; and (ii) methodologically testing this impact on a time series basis. Using data on negativity in parliaments, the results confirm that low approval ratings lead to more negativity closer to elections in Belgium (2014–2020) and Croatia (2010–2021). In the UK (2010–2020), however, approval does not appear to be a significant predictor of negativity use. These findings have important implications for our understanding of the use of negativity by political actors outside campaigns.