The Impact of Probability and Magnitude of Outcome on Disappointment and Elation

Abstract

Bell's (1985) disappointment theory postulates that probability and magnitude of outcome affect the intensity of disappointment after undesirable outcomes and that of elation after desirable outcomes. The influence of probability and magnitude of outcome on the intensity of disappointment and elation was examined in five studies. Study 1 (within-subjects design) showed an effect of probability on both disappointment and elation. Study 2 (between-subjects design) showed only an effect of probability on disappointment. Study 3 also relied on a between-subjects design, used a different set of pay-offs, and replicated the findings of Study 2. In Study 4 both probability and magnitude of outcome were systematically varied. Results showed a large effect of probability on disappointment, but only a small effect on elation. Magnitude had a large effect on elation, but only a small effect on disappointment. Study 5 (using a real lottery) replicated the findings of Studies 2 and 3. Overall, these results suggest that experienced disappointment is primarily determined by the probability of the (undesirable) outcome, while elation is primarily determined by the magnitude of the (desirable) outcome. Possible explanations for this asymmetry are proposed, and implications for disappointment theory are briefly outlined.