The Impact of Population Policies: Comment

Abstract

IN THE ARTICLE Desired fertility and the impact of population policies, Lant Pritchett (1994) concludes that changes in socioeconomic conditions are very important causes of fertility declines in developing countries. He also concludes that the effect of family planning programs on fertility is quantitatively small. I agree with the former but not the latter conclusion. This note will deal only with the principal areas of disagreement. Before turning to the details of Pritchett's analysis, I summarize briefly the two central arguments made by advocates of family planning programs regarding their impact on fertility: (1) there is substantial unwanted (and mistimed) fertility in most societies, and (2) well-designed family planning programs can effectively reduce unwanted childbearing. Pritchett considers unwanted fertility (excess fertility) to be a matter of little consequence. However, about one in four births in the developing world (excluding China) is unwanted-a total of some 25 million per year. In addition, approximately 25 million abortions are performed annually in developing countries, often under unsafe conditions. Aside from the hazards unwanted pregnancies pose to women, they contribute to population growth. If unwanted fertility could be eliminated entirely, fertility in the developing world would drop halfway from its current average of about 3.5 births per woman to the replacement level of just over two, and future population growth would be cut by nearly 2 billion (Bongaarts 1994). Helping women (and men) to implement their reproductive preferences is an obvious place to start if one wants to reduce fertility and future population growth. How much difference can family planning programs make? Pritchett finds such programs to be largely ineffective. One key piece of evidence he cites in support of his conclusion is the lack of a relationship between unwanted fertility and overall fertility. While factually correct, this observation misses the point: the absence of such a relationship is not due to a lack