The impact of population dynamics on public policy: the perspective of political gerontology.

Abstract

Dramatic increases in the proportion of older persons in the U.S. is an area of profound and direct political and policy impact; not only are there increasing numbers of older persons, but the politically relevant characteristics of tomorrow's elderly differentiate them from today's and yesterday's elderly. Recent findings are summarized which contradict the view that the aged and the issue of aging are not increasingly salient aspects of politics in the U.S. A brief consideration of the Social Security issue highlights the potential importance of this issue. The changing age structure of the population summarized in the Old-Age Dependency Ratios is seen as more relevant to the possible conflict over policy allocations than is the scenario described by the Total Dependency Ratios. With respect to the cohort concept of age group differences and age-group phenomena, the flow of cohorts through the population system represents the succession of potentially unique generational entities whose characteristics and location in the flow of population can substantially influence society and politics. The most explosive policy issue deriving from the changing age structure of the American population surrounds the national Social Security system, while operational solutions for predicted Social Security "bankruptcy" might be fiscal or economic in nature, the fundamental decisions are derived from political philosophy and political influence. Policy responses to demographic pressure will be a product of political dynamics, and the following areas of political inquiry describe the likely foundation of old-age influence upon American politics: 1) political participation; 2) political attitudes; 3) partisan flexibility; and 4) organizational activity. Predictions that population patterns are likely to produce political controversies, and that in this context, age is likely to grow as a political issue, should not be surprising.