The impact of population aging on economic growth in Korea: Revisiting the export-led growth hypothesis framework

Abstract

This study investigated the impact of population aging on the relationship between exports and economic growth in Korea using the export-led growth hypothesis framework with an autoregressive distributed lag model and data for the period 1990–2021. We found that export positively influenced economic growth. However, the effect of export on economic growth was negative considering population aging. Furthermore, the negative effect of export increased with aging. Our results also show a positive effect of population aging on economic growth in the long run, which implies the dominance of the human capital effect over the negative productivity effect. Hence, our results indicate that developed countries seeking to achieve sustainable growth through exports should control the population aging problem. Our study suggests two possible policies for solving the population aging problem: promote births and encourage immigration growth.