Abstract
As “demographic dividend” gradually disappears, and two-child policy boosts, and the prototype of the aging society gradually shows, changes in population age structure in our country may appear. While the change of population age structure will affect the demand for housing, and then affect the price of housing. This article will make use of 2004-2014 provincial panel data of 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions, in the control of variables: per capita income, housing supply factors, inflation, whole population to study the effects of population age structure on real estate prices. With the study, it was found that total dependency ratio and elderly dependency ratio are on an inverse relationship towards ordinary residence price. In particular, elderly dependency ratio is negatively related to high-grade residential property prices. On the further study, I found that the eastern region real estate price is most sensitive to the changes in the dependency ratio.
Highlights
In recent years, rising house prices peremptorily have become a serious problem of China’s economic development, and even affect social stability
This article will make use of 2004-2014 provincial panel data of 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions, in the control of variables: per capita income, housing supply factors, inflation, whole population to study the effects of population age structure on real estate prices
It was found that total dependency ratio and elderly dependency ratio are on an inverse relationship towards ordinary residence price
Summary
In recent years, rising house prices peremptorily have become a serious problem of China’s economic development, and even affect social stability. House prices in different regions in the final analysis are caused by the imbalance between supply and demand. Housing demand is related to many factors, of which depends partly on the population characteristics, so under the special condition of “two children” policy and the coming aging society, the analysis of the impact of population age structure changes on real estate prices in China, with corresponding suggestions for the future population trends impact on housing prices, has strong practical significance. The article is divided into the several parts: firstly, the article would comb the literatures from foreign and domestic angles in order to summarize which factors can affect real estate price and influence mechanism; secondly, the article will analyze the theory which supports the empirical study; thirdly, based on the theory, the article will carry the empirical test and discuss the result. The article will give some suggestions based on the empirical results
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