The impact of place-based policy: evidence from a multiple synthetic control analysis of the northeastern revitalization program in China

Abstract

We examine the effect of a place-based policy in China, the Northeastern Revitalization Program. In 2003 the State Council of the People’s Republic of China initiated the program in northeastern China by removing an agricultural tax, enhancing the urban social security system, facilitating foreign investment, and restructuring state-owned enterprises in the region. Using the synthetic control method, we find that the program had no significant effect on GDP per capita in all three regions. Liaoning had slightly worse GDP per capita post-treatment, as did Heilongjiang (albeit to a lesser extent). While the multiple synthetic control analysis shows that economic outcomes were worse post-treatment, the impact of this program was heterogeneous across the three regions. We argue the lackluster performance likely comes from the continuing dominance of inefficient state-owned enterprises in the provinces.