The Impact of Personal and National Economic Conditions on the Presidential Vote: A Pooled Cross-Sectional Analysis

Abstract

Studies of the electoral consequences of changing econoomic conditions have not becn able to distinguish the effects of macroeconomic conditions on the vote from those of personal financial circumstances. That is because research to date has relied either on exclusively aggregate-level information analyzed longitudinally or exclusively individual-level survey data analyzed cross-sectionally. This study employs a pooling of National Election Studies survey data, 1956-84, augmented by a time series of national economic statistics to evaluate sociotropic and pocketbook conceptions of voting and to assess the advantage of incumbency in presidential elections. Personal financial predicaments are found to carry weight in individuals' voting decisions, but changing macroeconomic conditions are more important as determinants of election outcomes. Also, the degree to which incumbency is an electoral asset depends upon election-year economic circumstances. Although it was not designed for such purposes, the model presented here generally forecast presidential election outcomes well, even though it ignored the personalities and issues of the campaigns. That result provokes some thoughts about the impact of campaign events and strategies on presidential contests.