The Impact of Performance Level Misclassification on the Accuracy and Precision of Percent at Performance Level Measures

Abstract

No Child Left Behind (NCLB) performance mandates, embedded within state accountability systems, focus school AYP (adequate yearly progress) compliance squarely on the percentage of students at or above proficient. The singular importance of this quantity for decision‐making purposes has initiated extensive research into percent proficient as a measure of school quality. In particular, technical discussions have scrutinized the impact of sampling, measurement, and other sources of error on percent proficient statistics. In this article, we challenge the received orthodoxy that measurement error associated with individual students' scores is inconsequential for aggregate percent proficient statistics. Synthesizing current classification accuracy research with techniques from randomized response designs, we establish results which specify the extent to which measurement error—manifest as performance level misclassifications—produces bias and increases error variability for percent at performance level statistics. The results have direct relevance for the design of coherent and fair accountability systems based upon assessment outcomes.