The impact of oil shocks on the South African economy

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe recent increases in oil prices have raised the importance of studying the effects of oil supply and demand shocks on an economy. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of the oil supply and demand shocks on the South African economy using a sign restriction-based structural Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. The results of this study show that an oil supply shock has a short-lived significant impact only on the inflation rate, while the impact on the other variables is statistically insignificant. Supply disruptions result in a short-term increase in the domestic inflation rate with no reaction from the monetary policy. An aggregate demand shock results in short- to medium-term improvements in domestic output and the real exchange rate. The effect is statistically insignificant for the inflation rate as well as the monetary policy instrument. The inflation rate and the real exchange rate react negatively to an oil-specific demand shock, while output is positively related to unanticipated changes in oil price due to speculations. This study’s results highlight the importance of understanding the source of the oil price movements, since an oil price increase necessarily does not imply a negative effect on the economy.