The impact of oil price changes on the RTS index

Abstract

Subject. The article explores the relationship between the price of Brent crude oil and the ruble exchange rate. The definition of existing relationships enables to make recommendations on the development of the Russian economy. Objectives. The purpose of the article is to assess the impact of changes in the price of Brent crude oil on the ruble exchange rate and the index of the Moscow Exchange and RTS index, as well as to substantiate the importance of market news monitoring. Methods. The rests on quantitative approaches of parametric testing, including the ADF test, the unit root test, the estimation of lag length and the quantile regression method. The study also employs methods of grouping and analysis. Results. The findings show that there is no short-term impact of changes in crude oil prices on the Russian economy. Conclusions. Based on the analysis of the oil market, we provide mathematical calculations that determine the need to search for new sales markets for Russian oil.