The impact of official rumor-refutation information on the dynamics of rumor spread

Abstract

The rapid development of the internet has resulted in a significant rise in online rumor spreading. Therefore, effectively reducing or eliminating the harm resulting from these rumors has become a new research focus. This paper proposed a variant of classic Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (SIR) disease transmission model to explore the influence of official rumor-refutation information quantity and content on rumor spread. A nonlinear differential equation model was constructed to describe the rumor propagation process and a next-generation matrix method employed to calculate rumor propagation threshold R0. Two types of equilibrium points are solved, and it is proven that when R0<1, the rumor-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and when R0>1, the rumor propagation equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable. A sensitivity analysis was performed on R0, and the impact of official rumor-refutation information content on the sensitivity of the R0 related parameters is considered. Then certain numerical values were assigned to the relevant parameters and the evolutionary mechanism simulated in different situations, with the theoretical results being verified using numerical simulation. It was found that the quantity of official rumor-refutation information played a positive but non-critical role in the rumor dissemination process, it even has a backfire effect in rumor controlling process under certain conditions, while the official rumor-refutation information content was a key factor affecting the dissemination threshold; therefore, official rumor-refutation information content needs to be improved to effectively control rumor spread. Finally, some policy suggestions that can contribute to rumor management in an emergency event were given.