The Impact of Multiple Dimensions of Urbanization on CO2 Emissions: A Spatial and Threshold Analysis of Panel Data on China's Prefecture-Level Cities

Abstract

The extant literature has debated the impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions with a focus on population urbanization but has paid little attention to the other dimensions of urbanization, including economy urbanization and land urbanization, which may have different effects on CO2 emissions. Based on panel data for 351 cities in China from 2000-2015, this paper uses the spatial Durbin model and threshold regression model to explore the impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions. The results show that a nonlinear relationship exists between the multiple dimensions of urbanization and CO2 emissions. Firstly, all three dimensions of urbanization are affected by a spatial dependence on CO2 emissions. Secondly, the impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions exhibits significant heterogeneity in terms of urban population sizes. The economy urbanization of small cities, medium-sized cities and large cities plays a significant role in promoting CO2 emissions, but has the opposite effect on megacities. Population urbanization promotes CO2 emissions in small cities and megacities. Land urbanization has a negative impact on small cities and megacities and has a positive impact on large and medium-sized cities. Thirdly, urbanisation exhibits a threshold effect on CO2 emissions due to different levels of environmental technology.