THE IMPACT OF MONETARY SHOCKS ON INFLATION IN SELECTED WEST ASIAN COUNTRIES

Abstract

The impact of monetary policies on inflation has always been one of the goals of monetary policymakers. To what extent a monetary shock can be effective on inflation, or that both positive and negative monetary shocks can be effective in aggravating or controlling inflation are among the important issues in monetary economics, which scientific research is aimed at It is very necessary to answer them. Therefore, in this research, the impact of positive and negative shocks on the inflation rate in selected West Asian countries has been investigated. In this research, panel data has been used in the period of 2000-2020 for the countries of the West Asian region, including Iran, Armenia, Jordan, Azerbaijan, Pakistan, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Qatar, Kuwait and Georgia. GLS method is used to estimate the model. The results showed that the impact of monetary shocks on the general level of prices are different from each other in the countries of the West Asian region, both in terms of the level of significance and in terms of the level of influence. In the countries of Iran, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kuwait and Georgia, monetary shocks had a symmetrical effect on the general level of prices, and in the countries of Jordan, Azerbaijan and Qatar, the effect of monetary shocks was asymmetric. Of course, in the countries of Saudi Arabia, Oman and Kazakhstan, only negative shocks have an effect on the general level of prices, as a result, the impact of monetary shocks on the general level of prices is asymmetric in these countries as well. Also, the results showed that in all the studied countries, the impact of negative shocks on prices is greater than positive shocks.